Robinhood says crypto-linked event contracts are taking a larger share of prediction market activity on its platform and could overtake sports within a few years. Chief executive Vlad Tenev told CNBC that sports, once the main retail entry point, is on track to become a minority of the business.
The revenue numbers show how quickly that business is growing. Robinhood reported $156 million in event-contract revenue in the second quarter, up more than tenfold from a year earlier. Transaction-based revenue across the platform rose 44% to $776 million. Robinhood also said 13.6 billion event contracts were traded in the quarter.
These are short-term derivatives that pay out when a specific outcome occurs. On Robinhood, the mix is moving toward crypto prices and market events, not just sports wagers. After the June launch of Rothera through its joint venture with Susquehanna, Robinhood now has a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for these products. The shift is straightforward: crypto volatility is becoming a larger part of Robinhood’s prediction market business.
Robinhood’s prediction markets leaning on crypto demand is the tell on where retail trading flow is heading next.