The CLARITY Act’s chances in the Senate have dropped sharply. Galaxy Research now puts the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at just 10%, down from a 75% estimate earlier this summer.
That isn’t just a story of delays: the key challenge is legislative mechanics. The Senate Banking Committee moved the bill forward in May, passing it out by a 15 to 9 margin, but it has struggled since then. The problem now is not just running out the clock. The bill still doesn’t have a unified text across committees, and some ethics provisions are unresolved.
To even reach debate on the floor, supporters need to clear a cloture vote, which usually calls for 60 votes. That’s scheduled for September 15. Each cloture cycle also eats into an already crowded Senate calendar.
This squeeze leaves the broader crypto policy agenda exposed. If CLARITY stalls, there is still no federal framework clearly dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. So the immediate fight is no longer just about crypto policy. It is about whether backers can solve the procedural and political obstacles still standing in the bill’s way.