Crypto speculation found a new center of gravity this week in short-term Bitcoin prediction contracts. Kalshi and Polymarket just saw a record $2.7 billion in combined weekly volume.
But that surge is not spread broadly across lots of contract types. It is tightly concentrated in ultra-short-term Bitcoin prediction wagers.
On Polymarket, the U.S. Bitcoin market that settles every 15 minutes moved more than $91 million in volume in its first full week. By contrast, longer-duration contracts, like bets on where Bitcoin will stand at year end, attracted roughly $42 million on Kalshi and about $78 million on Polymarket.