Polymarket traders have slashed the odds of the CLARITY Act passing by the end of 2026, now pricing just 16% for the bill to become law. The move comes after the measure was left off the official Senate floor schedule. For prediction market participants, that omission is being read as more than a minor administrative slip, with the odds dropping after Senate leaders had not yet made the procedural moves needed to bring the bill up for a vote before the August recess.
The shift in pricing reflects a simpler concern: not just whether support exists, but whether there is still a workable path to a vote on the calendar. In that sense, Polymarket is signaling that traders now see passage by the end of 2026 as a long shot, rather than a delayed but likely outcome.
That still is not a formal whip count, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee recently argued prediction markets may be underestimating the bill’s chances. But for now, the message from the market is straightforward: the bill is off the calendar, and the odds of passage have fallen with it.