Traditional risk assets bounced today, with volatility cooling and stocks regaining ground. But crypto didn’t follow. Bitcoin is locked in its range and Ethereum is flatlining when it should be rallying.

The disconnect is everywhere: price action is still, but tension is building just above support. Majors are stuck, altcoins drift at monthly lows, and even where there are signs of strength, traders are getting almost no reward for risk. It feels like a lull, but under the surface, the market is shifting, the kind of calm where a single event can spill over fast.

Ethereum is the case in point. It’s the one market that would be running with stocks if not for a fresh event risk. Right as things should turn up, exploit-linked Ether just started moving again, and with it, the mood on Ethereum has shifted.